Fantasy Football Mock Drafts

I decided to try something new today. I took the player projections from FantasyPros and based on my real ten-team draft  picked a value for the best player not drafted, in other words, the value of a player on the waiver wire. Then, I calculated the difference in PPR points per game from that replacement player. So, I used Antonio Gibson (undrafted in my league) at 7.6 points per game as my waiver-level RB, and calculated Christian McCaffrey and his projected 20.6 points per game to mark him as +13.0 points above the player I could get off the waivers. For WR, my replacement player is Joshua Palmer (9.8 points per game). For QB, my replacement player is Kirk Cousins (15.7 points per game). For TE, my replacement player was Tyler Conklin (7.4 points per game). For DST, the Lions (7.0 points per game). For K, David Carlson (8.2 points per game). Then, I sorted all the players and tried to use the highest values as a guide for my draft. This draft was from position #5, and I was reas...

Yes, all my mock drafts were leading up to this, my actual fantasy football draft on NFL.com. Now, our league commissioner has built some idiosyncrasies into the league, which affected my draft slightly. In addition to being a PPR league, there is a 0.5 point bonus per rushing attempt. This kind of makes it like a half-PPR league in a way, but it also boosts the value of running QBs. Then, on top of that, there is an end-of-year payout to the team whose quarterbacks score the most points for the season. Similarly, there is an end-of-year payout for top-scoring defense through the season. There is a payout for the highest single-week running back performance, and a payout for the highest scoring week overall. I was randomly given the #10 position, which is probably my least favorite position this year, but I did notice that it does come with the bonus of getting the #1 waiver spot to start the season. Pick 1.10: A.J. Brown WR (bye 5). Pick 2.01: Saquon Barkley RB (bye 5). Team 9 took Jo...

Cramming in the practice drafts for my real draft tomorrow. This one was kind of the draft that always happens, where the players I'm waiting on get swiped just before my pick. Pick 1.06: Bijan Robinson RB (bye 12). Breece Hall went #5. Amon-Ra St. Brown went #7. Pick 2.05: Kyren Williams RB (bye 6). Starting with two RBs is not my norm, but I kind of like how it works here. Davante Adams was my highest-rated WR. Pick 3.06: Cooper Kupp WR (bye 6). Pairing Ram RB+WR up is probably not ideal, but I like the value of Kupp here. Pick 4.05: James Cook RB (bye 12). Was waiting for Jaylen Waddle here, and he went with 4.04. So, rather than take DJ Moore, I opted for Cook. I can still use him as a Flex in my league, if I want. Pick 5.06: DJ Moore WR (bye 7). And not taking Moore turned out to be the right move, as he made it back to me in Round 5. Pick 6.05: Tee Higgins WR (bye 12). I think maybe I should have taken Lamar Jackson or Patrick Mahomes here, given how my team ended up. Pick 7....

I tried to grab position 8, but I guess it was filled, and I got placed in position 10. Well, this will give me a chance to compare against the one I did earlier today , also on NFL.com and also from position 10. Pick 1.10: Garrett Wilson WR (bye 12). This draft started out much closer aligned to my rankings; so I got Garrett Wilson, who is my #10 ranked player, and I didn't get so lucky as in the last draft, where I got Bijan Robinson #4 and A.J. Brown #9. Pick 2.01: Saquon Barkley RB (bye5). I had Kyren Williams ranked higher than Barkley, but I didn't have the conviction to take Kyren when drafting here; so I've adjusted my rankings to move Saquon back ahead of Kyren. Pick 3.10: Deebo Samuel WR (bye 9). As with Kittle, if Brandon Aiyuk is going to hold out into the season, Deebo has big upside here at the end of Round 3. Pick 4.01: Rachaad White RB (bye 11). I don't have much faith in Rachaad, but nobody else does either; so I keep ending up with him. Kenneth Walker ...

My first draft is tomorrow on NFL.com; so I needed to go back to that platform to start getting used to it.  I was actually doing some positioning research during the draft; so I wasn't fully engaged on this one. Three or four of the other teams were on auto-draft; so it's not clear how useful this mock will be, but I did have some takeaways for myself. Most notably, the DST rankings on NFL.com are useless. I could have drafted my #1 (Ravens), but they were off the screen when I chose a DST; so I didn't even see them as an option. NFL.com doesn't give any kind of draft rating or even save the results once the mock is done; so you have to save your own copy if you want to review afterward. Pick 1.10: Bijan Robinson RB (bye 12). I'm moving Bijan to my overall #4, given the uncertainties at the WR position; so it was a surprise when he fell all the way to #10 here. Even Breece Hall fell to #8. Garrett Wilson went ahead of Justin Jefferson, and Patrick Mahomes was taken...

Well, I took a break from Mock Drafting for a week after Google AdSense said that my content wasn't unique and thus not ad-worthy. As if I were copying this from somewhere? Or as if all my posts are repetitive and contain no new information? Anyway, I'm not in this for the money, and not many people are reading this anyway (not a single person has commented on anything yet). So, probably there are no new ideas contained herein. Or, my drafts have been so poor as not to be worth reading. But, today, I finished my positional tiers to use for drafting, and I decided to run a mock draft on FantasyPros Simulator again to try them out. And, this time I got an A+ grade (97/100), with a projected 1st Place finish. So, take that, AdSense! Pick 1.01: Christian McCaffrey RB (bye 9). Almost everybody agrees he should go #1. My projections analysis shows him as 6.2 points per game better than the likely available RB at the end of Round 2, whereas the top WR is only going to be 3.1 points pe...

Well, I did create a tier sheet, and then I forgot to use it for this FantasyPros Mock Draft Simulator . Three of my top four receivers have byes in Week 6, which would hurt me here. I need to pay more attention to the bye week before clicking that Draft button. FP gave me a B- (81/100), which was a measly one-point improvement over yesterday's draft  and a projected sixth place finish out of 12 teams. Pick 1.03: Tyreek Hill WR (bye 6). I think Tyreek should go #2 overall because CeeDee Lamb's status is still up in the air a little. Should I consider an RB here? Projections are Breece Hall (301.1)+Jaylen Waddle (228.3) versus Tyreek (325.1)+Rachaad White (237.0), nearly two points a game; so taking the WR here is much better. Pick 2.10: Cooper Kupp WR (bye 6). Stacking my top two picks with the same bye week doesn't seem like a good move. If I had recognized I was doing this, I would have taken Drake London or Brandon Aiyuk here instead. Pick 3.03: Rachaad White RB (bye 11)...

Another 12-Team FantasyPros Mock Draft Simulation , this time from position #10. Even though I got a higher grade than my previous 12-team draft , I didn't feel like this one went well at all. My grade was a B- (80/100); so not that much better, and I felt like I got lesser-quality picks at a majority of the rounds compared to when I drafted from slot 6. For my next draft, I think I need to make a list of player tiers. That's generally a good strategy anyway; so having done a number of drafts now, I should have enough info to "rank" the players into tier groups by now. Pick 1.10: A.J. Brown WR (Bye 5). Other options: RB Jahmyr Gibbs and Jonathan Taylor. WR Puka Nacua. I have Brown as the next pick after my elite eight. Garrett Wilson went at 1.09. Pick 2.03: Puka Nacua WR (Bye 6). Other options: WR Davante Adams. RB Travis Etienne. QB Josh Allen. The four picks that went after 1.10 were all RBs (Saquon Barkley, Jonathan Taylor, Jahmyr Gibbs, Kyren Williams). I think I...

Now, I'm going to pivot and try some 12-team Mock Drafts. Starting out with FantasyPros Mock Draft Simulator to get a quick one in as a starting point. Other than my uncertainty near the beginning of the draft (picks 2-5), I felt pretty good about this one, but I got a poor grade (C+) with a projected 7th place finish. Pick 1.06: Ja'Marr Chase WR (Bye 12). Justin Jefferson and Amon-Ra St. Brown were still on the board. I might start to pivot toward Jefferson, as Chase's hold-in status might be changing to hold-out status now. Pick 2.07: Isiah Pacheco RB (Bye 6). FP had De'Von Achane rated higher. Pacheco will almost certainly get more touches. FP also suggested Davante Adams would be a much better pick here. FP's projections for my Round 2+4 picks show Pacecho+DaVonta Smith = 571.7 and Davante+Alvin Kamara = 585.3; so the older guys are nearly a point per game better. Pick 3.06: James Cook RB (Bye 12). Alvin Kamara, Michael Pittman, and Sam LaPorta were the suggest...

Today, I decided to draft using Yahoo! Fantasy Football Mock Drafts . It looks like there are a lot of active drafters here; so it's pretty easy to get into an 8-team, 10-team, 12-team, or 14-team draft with live people. The Yahoo! server crashed after my draft; so I didn't get to take a screenshot of the Draft Board. Yahoo! only grades real drafts; so I didn't get a grade for this mock draft. Pick 1.06: Ja'Marr Chase (Cin - WR)  Bijan Robinson was the other option to consider here, although #7 actually took Marvin Harrison Jr.; so #8 got Bijan. Using FP Projections, it looks it's probably a wash here. Bijan+Puka=568.1 Ja'Marr+Saquon=565.0. Bijan+Davante = 540.2 Ja'Marr+Kyren = 541.0. Pick 2.05: Derrick Henry (Bal - RB)  I should have taken Saquon Barkley here, I didn't even notice him on the Board. I'm not used to seeing Derrick Henry's name come up, I think, having not drafted in this spot before. Puka Nacua was also still on the board here. Ky...

Today, we have a live draft (against other live players) on Fantasy Pros because I wanted to see whether the preseason week 1 performances have affected the draft positioning at all. I also decided to start tracking Bye weeks of the players I'm drafting, though I didn't really take that into account much when picking players, as I ended up with three starters on Bye for Week 9 and three starters on Bye for Week 14.  I did not have a good plan at the end of this draft. I need to decide how many RBs and WRs I want on my bench, probably based on the quality of starters I get in the earlier rounds. FantasyPros gave me a B (86/100) for this draft with a projected third-place finish. Hopefully, if I keep doing this, I'll start to get a little better. Pick 1.03: Tyreek Hill WR (Bye 6). I still have Tyreek ranked above CeeDee Lamb because of Lamb's holdout status. Pick 2.08: Kyren Williams RB (Bye 6). Travis Etienne is ranked higher, but as far as I can tell, Kyren is supposed...

Trying a draft from Slot 10 to make sure that none of my Elite Eight are available. Once again using FantasyPros Mock Draft Simulator . This draft seemed to start out well, but it got ugly in the later rounds. Because there seemed to be a never-ending supply of good wide receivers in the last draft, but in this draft they were suddenly all gone when I started to look for them in Round 10. FP gave me a B- (80/100) on this draft. Picks 1.10 & 2.1: Garrett Wilson WR & Jonathan Taylor RB. Because this is a snake draft, the #10 pick gets two in a row each time and then has to wait 18 picks to draft again. Also available here at the turn are Puka Nacua, Jahmyr Gibbs, and Saquon Barkley. I think it still makes sense to take one RB and one WR here If you want Davante Adams or Marvin Harrison Jr., you can take one of them along with your favorite remaining RB. Picks 3.10 & 4.1: Brandon Aiyuk WR & Josh Jacobs RB. Continuing to stay balanced here. Rachaad White is also here again,...

As promised in my last post, I decided to do a draft from the #9 position on FantasyPros Draft Simulator . Unfortunately, the computer player at #7 decided to reach for Marvin Harrison Jr.; so I was still able to get one of my Elite Eight from the #9 spot. FantasyPros graded this draft as a B+ (87/100). So, I'm improving! Pick 1.09: Bijan Robinson RB. Consensus Top 3 RB. No reason even to consider A.J. Brown or Garrett Wilson here. Pick 2.02: A.J. Brown WR. Especially when I can get A.J. Brown with the next pick, as the #10 slot took Saquon Barkley and Jonathan Taylor. Pick 3.09: Jaylen Waddle WR. The FP suggestions were Michael Pittman, Jalen Hurts, Rachaad White, and Alvin Kamara. After the analysis from the  last mock draft , I decided to pass on White and take the WR. Pick 4.02: Rachaad White RB. And White came back to me, even though #10 took Josh Jacobs. I considered James Cook here, but White should still get a lot more receptions, I think. Pick 5.09: Anthony Richardson QB. ...

I used the  FantasyPros.com Draft Simulator  for the mock draft this time. It lets you import your settings from your fantasy football league, and the computer-based picks are a lot more reasonable than the ones on NFL.com, which was giving me distorted results because of teams picking Defenses and Kickers in Round 7-8 to complete starting lineups, rather than waiting until the end of the draft like in normal drafts. For comparison, you can look at the NFL.com mock draft I did from the #8 position yesterday . FantasyPros also gives a draft rating. I got a B- (82 out of 100) for this mock. Pick 1.08: Amon-Ra St. Brown WR. The last one left of the Big Eight left. I'll have to try a draft from the #9 spot next; so that I can compare options when the top eight players are gone. Pick 2.03: Jonathan Taylor RB. Fantasy Pros suggested Puka Nacua here. Travis Etienne and Kyren Williams were other options. I prefer getting an RB who has shown RB1 upside rather than doubling up on WRs wi...

Results of my second Fantasy Football mock draft this year on  NFL.com . This one did not go as well as the one I did just a few hours earlier from the #3 spot . Ten team, standard snake draft, PPR, 2 WR+Flex. Thursday August 8th, 5:54pm PDT. Seven of the drafters were computers. Drafting from the #8 spot: Round 1: Bijan Robinson RB. I was happy to grab a top-tier RB here, with all the top-tier WRs gone. Using fantasypros.com projections , going RB+WR from this spot is the better option. Bijan (292.5)+Garrett Wilson (262.8) = 555.3. A.J. Brown (277.6)+Jonathan Taylor (259.1) = 536.7, so a difference of just over a point per game. Round 2: Garrett Wilson WR. Saquon Barkley and Jonathan Taylor were available, but not good enough to go RB+RB here. Marvin Harrison Jr, Drake London, and Davante Adams were other WR options. Round 3: Rachaad White RB. I think I was unreasonably worried that we would run out of RBs, but this year seems to be different. So, I probably would have been better...

Results of my first Fantasy Football mock draft this year on NFL.com . I did this one with no preparation at all just to see what it would be like. Ten team, standard snake draft, PPR, 2 WR+Flex. Thursday August 8th, 2pm PDT. Drafting from the #3 spot: Round 1: Ja'Marr Chase WR. McCaffrey and Tyreek Hill went first. CeeDee Lamb (holdout situation) and Justin Jefferson (significant QB downgrade) were available, but it's probably more interesting to consider whether taking Breece Hall (or Bijan Robinson) here is worthwhile. Best NFL projections for taking WR 1st and RB 2nd are: CeeDee Lamb (325.9) + Isiah Pacheco (237.9) = 547.8. Best NFL projections for taking RB 1st and WR 2nd are: Breece Hall (259.7) + Drake London (239.2) = 508.9, or more than 2 points per game! That's pretty significant; so take the WR first from this spot. Round 2: Kyren Williams RB. Isiah Pacheco and Derrick Henry were available. Kyren seems to have the more locked-in role to me. Round 3: Cooper Kupp W...