Drafting using Replacement Value (10-Team Position #5, FantasyPros Sim) 8/28/2024

I decided to try something new today. I took the player projections from FantasyPros and based on my real ten-team draft picked a value for the best player not drafted, in other words, the value of a player on the waiver wire. Then, I calculated the difference in PPR points per game from that replacement player. So, I used Antonio Gibson (undrafted in my league) at 7.6 points per game as my waiver-level RB, and calculated Christian McCaffrey and his projected 20.6 points per game to mark him as +13.0 points above the player I could get off the waivers. For WR, my replacement player is Joshua Palmer (9.8 points per game). For QB, my replacement player is Kirk Cousins (15.7 points per game). For TE, my replacement player was Tyler Conklin (7.4 points per game). For DST, the Lions (7.0 points per game). For K, David Carlson (8.2 points per game). Then, I sorted all the players and tried to use the highest values as a guide for my draft. This draft was from position #5, and I was reasonably happy with how it went. FP gave me a B- grade (82/100), though, which I found a little disappointing. I will have to try another one of these, maybe with some TE strategy adjustments.

Pick 1.05: Bijan Robinson RB (bye 12) +9.8 points. Using this system, the top three to draft are McCaffrey +13.0, Breece Hall +10.1, and Bijan. Then CeeDee Lamb +9.8 and Tyreek Hill +9.3 are next.

Pick 2.06: Kyren Williams RB (bye 6) +6.8 points. Kyren ranks ahead of Travis Etienne +6.4 and Derrick Henry +6.2, but all these running backs are ahead of the available receivers: Davante Adams +4.6, Marvin Harrison Jr. +4.6, and Sam LaPorta +5.6. 

Pick 3.05: Jalen Hurts QB (bye 5) +6.5 points. Hurts and Allen both come in at +6.5, significantly ahead of Lamar Jackson +4.3 and Patrick Mahomes +4.1. Kamara is the top RB at +6.6, but I already have two running backs; so I opted for the quarterback here. Drake London is the top WR left at +4.5. Mark Andrews is the top TE at +4.7.

Pick 4.06: Deebo Samuel WR (bye 9) +3.8 points. If I were being strict, I would have taken Andrews +4.7 here, but I thought he would last another round. He went with the next pick at 4.07. Or, I would have taken Rachaad White +6.3, but I'm trying to avoid taking White in the 4th round.

Pick 5.05: Kenneth Walker RB (bye 10) +4.8 points.

Pick 6.06: DeVonta Smith WR (bye 6) +4.0 points. Aaron Jones is +4.5, but I need a 2nd WR more than a 3rd RB.

Pick 7.05: Rashee Rice WR (bye 6) +2.7 points. I think his projection is low; so I bumped him up. Aaron Jones is still on the board, but I don't think Rice is going to last to round 8.

Pick 8.06: Evan Engram TE (bye 12) +3.7 points. I have a bunch of TEs which are significantly better than Tyler Conklin; so I think the flaw in this strategy is to reach for the higher-rated TE when there are still five or six others in the same tier.

Pick 9.05: Diontae Johnson WR (bye 11) +1.8 points. I was still feeling weak at wide receiver; so I passed up Jaylen Warren +3.0 and Devin Singletary +2.5.

Pick 10.06: Kyle Pitts TE (bye 12) +3.5 points. Looking at the value above replacement led to this pick. I'm not surehow I feel about it still.

Pick 11.05: Jayden Daniels QB (bye 14) +1.4 points. I ignored the values for one round just to make sure I grabbed Daniels.

Pick 12.06: Chuba Hubbard RB (bye 11) -0.2 points. I think the projections probably haven't been adjusted yet for Jonathan Brooks being placed on the PUP.

Pick 13.05: Ravens DST (bye 14) +1.5 points. Top-rated defense.

Pick 14.06: Justin Tucker K (bye 14) +1.2 points. Top-rated kicker.

Pick 15.05: Brian Thomas Jr. WR (bye 12) +0.6 points.




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